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Let Pakistan Make Its Own Progress
From The New York Times:
By Nadia Naviwala
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts — What do we do about Pakistan? Because I am a Pakistani-American who recently spent several months there, people here are constantly trying to get me to answer that question. One of the most important things I can offer them is a reality check.
I grew up in Nashville, Tennessee, but my family moved to Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, in the early 1990s. Those were Karachi’s worst years and constitute my earliest memories of terrorism. Political and ethnic violence wracked the city, becoming, as we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan today, an excuse for every type of crime — shootings in mosques, kidnappings, violent break-ins and streetside executions if you belonged to the wrong ethnic group. By 1996, my family gave up on Pakistan and came back to the United States. By 1999, Pervez Musharraf gave up on Pakistan and overthrew the government.
Worse than the violence, for a Pakistani-American child, was that Pakistan was boring. As far as I am concerned, Pizza Hut was the only good thing that happened to Pakistan in those years. Prior to that, there was no American fast food in Karachi, let alone malls or highways. You couldn’t even find a decent candy bar.
And as I got older, I grew increasingly irked by the conservatism. Pakistan, I felt, was easily the most closed country in the world — traditional dress was mandatory, girls were either stuck at home or harassed in the streets, and I almost never saw a foreigner.
I never imagined that I would see Pakistan the way I saw it this summer, after a mere 14 years. Karachi today looks like any major, cosmopolitan city — movie theaters, restaurants, and cafés full of boys and girls smoking, in jeans, mingling together. More women are finishing college and getting jobs, and they have traded traditional baggy shalwars for trousers and capris. The city has been aggressively transformed by a mayor so impressively capable that he seems misplaced in a culture of corrupt politicians and broken bureaucracies.
If I sound like a wide-eyed Pakistani-American, it’s because I am. Pakistan today is more open and progressive than Pakistani communities in the United States. My parents’ generation in America has worked hard to preserve the Pakistan they left behind in the 1980’s.
Pakistani-Americans whisper and shake their heads about the wild parties they hear go on in Pakistan today. It’s true: alcohol, although illegal, is everywhere. And when I celebrated Christmas in Karachi this December, it was a Pakistani-American girl I met there who commented disapprovingly. Meanwhile, my Pakistani friends didn’t believe me when I tried to tell them that, having grown up in the United States, I have never met a Muslim who celebrated Christmas.
This is the change we need in Pakistan, but no U.S. policy or aid program could have brought it about. The desire that many Pakistanis have for a more open and liberal society, and the local leaders and businesses that are making it possible, are our best bet for stability and security in the region. Social change, economic growth, political maturity — these are things that crowd out groups like the Taliban and make their rhetoric fall flat. But these things have no formulas and Americans have the least ability to understand or control them — no matter how many policies are pronounced in Washington or billions of dollars poured into Islamabad.
More importantly, progress in Pakistan — strengthening economic growth, governance and liberal values — takes years to realize but only a few American airstrikes or Taliban bombings to destroy. American mistakes in the region have been aggravating public sentiments for years and fueled fundamentalism in the mainstream. In the 1990s, none of my aunts wore burkas. Now, they all do. And Taliban bombings in the cities are leading to a flight of people with means, usually the most progressive and educated, and capital. As we learned from our support for the mujahedeen in the 1980s, the secondary effects of U.S. policy are the most damning.
How do we harness and support positive trends in Pakistan? If Washington can put good people to work on that question, who will also factor in the limits of American understanding and ground capabilities in Pakistan, they will come to a better question: How can we protect the progress that Pakistanis have already made?
Instead of fixing “Af-Pak,” the best thing America can do for the region is stop it from getting more fouled up than it already is. So my answer to the question “what do we Americans do?” is to first understand what we have done already: U.S. war policies are inadvertently undermining the social and economic progress that Pakistanis have made over the years.
We need to accept the limits of our capabilities and understanding of realities on the ground. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, where the United States and other countries have a huge presence, few Americans travel to Pakistan and U.S. officials are extremely restricted in their movements.
Finally, we need realistic objectives, which will end up looking more like damage control than the magic bullet against the Taliban that everyone is looking for. Pakistan is a different story from Afghanistan — it is far more developed and modern. Afghans may not have the ability to lead themselves out of this mess, but Pakistanis do. After all, Pakistanis are the ones who suffer the most when their cities are bombed and their soldiers killed. If the United States continues to distort the situation through aggressive policy demands, then we are only reinforcing anti-Americanism and the breakdown of Pakistani institutions. What’s worse, if U.S. attention remains fixated on narrow measures of military success, Pakistan will become collateral damage of the Afghan war.
Nadia Naviwala is a student at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and a former national security aide in the U.S. Senate. She is currently researching U.S. development assistance in Pakistan.
Filed under: liberal Pakistan · Tags: Democratic society, Harvard, IHT Op Ed contributor, Karachi, Kennedy School, liberal Pakistan, modern Pakistan, New York Times, Open Society, Pakistan, Pro-West
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@AZW: rexminor is not cooking up theories but facing realities. His views are completely different from the state govt and political elite. So obviously he is not running behind the state. The things rexminor and me talk about has never been tried in Pakistan, infact our elites do the opposite most of the time, which is why we are in a mess the first place.
As for the economics part, honestly, I am not expert so I wouldnt know. However I deeply trust well known economic theorists who successfully predicted all economic recessions, and the coming depressions 10-15 years in advance and are highly experienced and recognized though hold different views and perspectives on the economy. They are Gerald Celente, Bob Chapman, Michel Chussodovsky, Richard C Cook, Ellen Brown, Rodrigue Tremblay, Catherine Austin Fitts and many many others who have proven thier excellence in analysis and prediction. The people I follow are either former US government officials, people who have predicted economic trends much in advance, or they have thier online subscription all over the world including each and every US embassy in the world. So I may nt be an expert but I do trust them, unlike some mainstream economists who appear in the corporate media who did not even predict the crash even a month in advance. They more or less have an extremely gloomy image of US economy and also see other countries like China stop buying US debt. People are losing confidence in US economy.
@rexminor: I understand your point of view and totally respect it (unlike some people) so lets agree to disagree which we can also do unlike some people.
Also AZW just intellectually punched you, you should punch him back.
dear AZW,
Like Mr Gorki I love your post too, though I did not understand your opening remarks about the patriotism. I recognise that the nation building task in your country could not get completed because of the military take over in ther sixty’s.
The military brass though was very sincere but unfortunately had no background education to develope the new generation of Pakistanis as independent people and not as slaves of the colonialists. The military tried to groom Mr Bhuto as a rising politician and in their view had the vision and the charisma to take the masses towards progress. Mr Bhutto did his best and even promised the world that the nation would be prepared to live on grass. It is all history now.
What surprised me about your remarks was that Pakistan needs the US monetary and military help.. For a citizen and I guess you are a citizen of Pakistan, to state that you need monetary and military support from the US is not comprehensible. This is why I stated that perhaps the Pak education system is at fault. Sir, you are not at fault, and if there is a majority of people like you in the country, then Pakistan has no right to remain an independent nation. Nor, have you the right to possess nukes or pretend to demand from India the plebicite for occupied Kashmir. It is obvious that the US would act as a Banker and demand the collateral for the credit, the Nukes perhaps?
Now coming back to your tirade defending the Uncle Sam credit worthiness, and asking questions as if I am the famous Ben Binnecki and sitting in front of the US congress, or perhaps sitting in the court answering question of the prosecutor. I recognise that on this forum there are quite a few lawyers who are expert in asking lead questions, which already encompas the answers.
But let me try to summarise and respond to your opinion in a simple way.
. The two trillion dollars indebted by the US to the Saudis(not the gulf states) and the Chinese is in addition to the dollar reserves and the treasury bonds these countries hold. You could check with Chinese embassy as well as the Saudis, if they are prepared to give you this information. If I recall Mr Obama did make some reference to this onxce. After all they have the current account with these countries. Mr Obama and his adviser are also trying the million dollar trick of asking the chinese to revalue their currency.
. Most of the US and the European Banks are now bankrupt. I am sure your financial knowledge must tell you what an insolvent bank is. The Banks have received the Govts. support to continue to operate, the saving accounts of the citizens have also been guaranteed by the respective Govts.
I guess you know how the Govts. give guarantees? Just print the currency, in case the customers go wild and demand the return of their deposits.
. The US govt did not support the famous Lehman Bros. which very silently became insolvent, and thereby many thousands of ordinary European citizens lost their savings which they had saved for their retirement. I would reckon that you would have some sympathy for the individual families.
What is criminal in the print of dollars is that it affects those countries who have dollars as a reserve currency and where this paper is used by the consumers. You are obsessed with the impact of the US financial scandals in the domestic market but not the European markets and the rest of the world.
. The US capitalist system is different to the social maket oriented capitalist system in Europe. The financial jungle which was created in the US, based on the economy tide has collapsed.
. There was no transparency and most of the figures were manipulated by the Investment Banks. The Govt. either had no rules and regulations or did not implement them.
Your reference to inflation, the consumers in the US and most European countries have no monetos to buy and should answer your basic query on minor inflations. Perhaps you should also look at the emloyment situation as well. Your return info on investment is also faulty and you are also ignoring the value of the dollar against the Euro.
Sory, if you still do not understand as to what is going on in the financial world and have not had the opportunity to listen to the American top independent economistst, then I am afraid you are at the wrong address. Normaly I do not have much patience with the intellectuals who are reluctant to accept the reality or prepared to read different views and the upinions. Perhaps you would care to listen to Farid Zakari the Indian American journalists who is good at recommending latest published books on varying subjects.
Have a nice day.
@Mustafa Shaban
You have given more references to AZW for reading than I knew about. I am impressed.
I am not the citizen of Pakistan nor have I any direct or indirect contacts with the Govt.
My interest in the forum is simply to add any relevant info on a topic and express my own interpretation of the situation. The purpose is not to exchange punches or convert people to my point of view.
Regards,
Mustafa Shaban:
Gerald Celente, Michel Chussodovsky. They are discredited even in their own economic communities and are rightfully ridiculed even in Canada (where Michel tries to spread his conspiracy theories). For reference, Mr. Celente thought 2009 would bring food riots in the streets of America, and the forecast is now for 2012. Mr. Chussodovsky horrifies even the leftist of Canadians due to his wild and wooly theories. This gentlemen’s four year old theory if I remember correctly was that Taliban were a plant by the imperialist forces and that Jews planted the 9/11 conspiracy. Needless to say that there is a lot better use of our time than listen to folks like these who are dime a dozen everywhere.
And while we are at it, if you ever follow noted economists, many of them warned of the overleveraged financial system that caused the great credit crisis of 2008. What however strikes me about you and Rex Minor is that you make your grand theories (conspiracy or otherwise first) and then desperately hunt for something to justify them.
Rex Minor:
“You are entitled to your opinions. You are not entitled to your own facts“.
You have not answered a single question posed to you. They are quite straightforward queries, that place your point of view against the world who every day puts its money where its mouth is. The investment world comprises of hard working folks who take informed risks when they find opportunities. They stay away when rewards don’t justify risks. And they glean over the balance sheets and economic fundamentals of sovereign nations (including the US) every day to measure against the price at which that country’s risk is traded. This is quite unlike you or MS, or Chussodovksy or arm chair experts who predict gloom and doom and can’t quote a single stat to back up their theories.
But you did say something that is interesting. You said that The two trillion dollars indebted by the US to the Saudis(not the gulf states) and the Chinese is in addition to the dollar reserves and the treasury bonds these countries hold. You could check with Chinese embassy as well as the Saudis, if they are prepared to give you this information. If I recall Mr Obama did make some reference to this onxce..
First of all, US public debt and foreign obligations are public information. No one needs to go to the Chinese or Saudi Arabian Embassy to get this information. And since I am not going to any embassy lately, and second no information related to this additional American obligation is found in the public information, we will gladly ask Mr. Rex Minor to quote the source of this information and explain what does this two trillion dollars obligation consist of.
And while you inform us of this remarkable data, do try to answer the last two questions again. Rhetoric seldom counts as solid reasoning.
I think AZW is a better man than I for trying to make sense of the above posted long non-answers to his questions.
As for me, they remind me of a 1977 bollywood movie, ‘Amar Akbar Anthony’ in which Amitabh Bachchan plays the fool and in one scene jumps out of that giant Easter egg and exclaim his famous nonsensical lines,
“You see the coefficient of the linear is just a position by the hemoglobin of the atmospheric pressure in the country”.
In the movie, this hilarious jargon is followed by a collective:
Whaaaat? from his incredulous listeners.
My feelings, exactly.
So let me try again.
Dear Mustapha; rex minor, try to answer a simple question:
If indeed what you both claim is true and the US govt. is printing more money to stay afloat how come it has not lead to a runaway inflation?
This is not a trick question, for help in understanding the question look up ‘Weimar republic’ and ‘hyperinflation’.
And Ganpat Bhai, the question stands for you too, you too are welcome to help the above duo with their homework.
Regards
I was of course over-simplifying to make my point that the US is now awash in debt and lacks the economic muscle it used to have in influencing world affairs.
As for Tibet and the Dalai Lama, India would have done very well not to embitter the chinese by harbouring the Tibetans. It should have asked them to move on to the West years ago.
AZW:
It is a tiring busineess to debate with pedants who take you literally when you are using an image to make your point.
@AZW: Who do you suggest is a good economist, please suggest some names?
Me and rexminor are only posting our opinions and are not forcing anyone to listen to us, on the other hand it is actually you that seems desparate to throw us off. Your ideas on Chussodovsky are vague and what you said about shows that you have never looked at him closely. Quote me on thing he said that doesnt make sense, I will prove to you that he has the right idea. He is not discredited but very famous in the intellectual community, even Russia Today and different radio stations host his shows. Your view on conspiracy theories is very vague, just shows you have not even looked at the surface. You make c0mments like ”loony” theories or ”conspiracy” theories but you never give any evidence to counter these theories and prove them wrong.
@AZW,
I do not want to be rude, and have no intention to compete with your knowledge of published statistics from the wikepedia. You should have the ability of learning before you are able to expand your knowledge. This is the pre-requisite to gain PHD and further qualifications.
I am not obliged to provide you with the source of my info or the rationale of my interpretations . I did provide you with several tips, but you ignored them like all the clever people do.
If you want a straight explanation which a student can follow, perhaps you need to ask a direct question to the US treasury dept. or the White House.
I know it is not easy even for me to interpret the teminology of public debts and non public debts etc. as shown in the Treasury Dept.statistics or to understand the criminal investment underworld of the US. Let me give you a quiz and perhaps you are able to explain how Bernard Madof was able to set up a most popular Investment Company in the US and got away with a billion plus dollars of the investors money without having invested a single dime?
I do not have grand conspiracy theories, nor am I an adolescent to imagine that things are happening accidentaly. Perhaps for you it is an accident that the Zionists had anything to do with the current financial crash in the world and the break up of Iraq in such a manner that at least an estimated one hundred years would be needed to repair the country. Perhaps I am imagining that the US General of the US fleet for your part of the world and the top diplomat are of jewish origin.
Have a nice day.
PS
You are definitely aware of the US Echelon System and the Googles of this world who are collecting massive info about individuals and this alone has prevented me to provide as minimum as possible info in internet communications to avoid undue involvement of the innocents. Equally I do not wish to obtain an acceptance of my comments by disclosing my identity. Please bo block my input as a scam if you thing it is necessary.
@AZW
The latest in your part of the world is that the Chinese are moving towards the use of their own currency in their trade with Russia and India. They are also going to set up the regulations for the new Financial world. This is the first of the series of initiatives to say ‘adios’ to the US dollar in world trade. India has already been converting its dollars into gold.
@Ganpat Ram
For the first time I note that you are genuinely interested to aspire for India to become a voice in the International politics. The acquisition of sea elephants and deadly weapons is unlikely to make India a super power, but the even handed fairness in dealing with its citizens and the foreign world would upgrade the political stature of the country which it deserves. For comparison, please watch the performance of Brazil.
India needs to improve its relations with the neighbours and not simply concentrate on finanancial enterprise! This business of hindu and muslim is not understood in the outside world. Pakistan in my view lacks diplomacy because they have been subjected to the military rule and the clergy. Indian politicians could moderate their rhetoric to help Pakistan to become a true democratic and secular country.
Mustafa Shaban:
Reading Mr. Chussodovsky where he builds the whole world around a conspiry-laden framework where he is proven wrong again and again (Taliban being an imperial conspiracy, Osama Bin Laden being a CIA agent), I quickly stop wasting my time with fellows like this gentleman. You are most welcome to follow him as much as you want, remain grandly confused with the ideas of grand conspiracies, but no thanks from me.
Regarding your question about the notable economists; sure here are a few that I have been following actively. Jon Hatzius, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs kept calling for economy to fall into the recession right when credit crisis started appearing in summer of 2007. David Rosenberg (formerly of Merrill Lynch) has been an economic bear for so long that he is affectionately called David the Bear Rosenberg. Various strategists (specialists who combine economic forecast with market pricing) at Royal Bank of Scotland, Lehman Brothers (ironic isn’t it since one went bankrupt and other almost did) kept saying by 2007 that the over leverage in the system is being underestimated, and there is a higher probability of financial system suffering an equivalent of tsunami.
I have also been following Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) that was quite accurate throughout the recession in predicting its severity.
Rex Minor:
All of the figures I have quoted you were from the US Treasury website. Both Gorki and I have been trying to back up your statement with one simple explanation: Why does the printing of massive amounts of money has not resulted in even a speck of inflation over the past one and a half year. And if US is bankrupt indeed as you would like to imagine, why have hundreds of thousands of investors of all nationalities failed to notice that, and instead treat the debt issued by the US as the safest asset in the world
There is nothing trick about this simple question. You are being asked to back your statement. Figures being manipulated by Investment Banks does not make any sense. The world financial system now has five or six major centers outside the US across Europe, Asia and Far East. Why have all investment banks manipulating all figures. Remember, they are the ones who will lose the most if they fudge the data about the world economy and balance sheets. I have been trying to tell you something quite simple: there is no free lunch in this world. US cannot wriggle out of its debt problems by devaluing its currency or encouraging higher inflation through a thoughtless monetary policy. On the contrary, an average US citizen and businessman will be the first to notice this irresponsible behaviour. Noticing too many dollars floating around, US business will quickly start raising the prices. Inflation will set in the economy pushing the value of US debt down. US may have succeeded in getting out of its debt problems, but the problems due to high inflation will pale the budget deficit by a million miles. For one thing, noticing the dwindling value of their savings, consumers will flock to hard assets to preserve their wealth. Second, the certainty about the value of money that drives the investment business decision making will collapse, putting the whole market economy into a tailspin. Millions will lose their jobs as businesses will stop pursuing opportunities. They would be more interested in keeping themselves afloat, than worry about expanding at all. As hard earned savings of elder population lose their value by the day, it is the government itself that will have to bear the cost of living of an ageing population that is unemployed, in poor health and has zero savings.
Of course in your grand statements, none of these minor points ever mattered to you. In your singlehanded simplified ideas about US being bankrupt, and resorting to these measures, you failed to think ahead and see what the other investors are worrying about for the last few years. They realize that Chairman Bernanke and Fed are walking a tight rope. US Fed realizes that in a Great recession that US experienced from December 2007 to the summer of 2009, private spending fell off the cliff. In these conditions, governments come in as lenders and spenders of last resort. And US increasing liquidity in the financial system is simply lubricating the financial cogs since the financial liquidity had started disappearing altogether. Banks were hoarding cash and not lending it out as they simply did not know how long the recession would last. US underwriting obligations of private banks is a realistic decision: Most Banks balance sheets held sound assets, that could not be marked as underlying liquidity to determine their prices was not there. Once the liquidity problem was overcome, the balance sheets started improving quite quickly. Most of the biggest banks have paid back every single dime that Uncle Sam lent to them. US came out of one of the biggest recessions over past 70 years with a jobless rate of less than 10%. Mind you, the theoretical least possible jobless rate is around 4%. Thus the measures by the Fed and US Treasury were quite successful in keeping the damage down. 90.3% of US employable population in the US is employed, and next month we will mostly likely see US adding around 100,000 jobs.
An international investor analyzes all this information before he makes his decisions and puts his savings and capital to work. An investor realizes that bad times call for stern action and United States immediate concern in Fall of 2008 was to prevent the Great Recession from turning into a Great Depression. Once this is achieved, Fed is beginning to gradually withdraw liquidity programs. Day in and out, US Fed, European Central Banks and Central Banks around the world walk a fine line; they look to keep economic activity robust without sparking inflation. The price of their countries’ debt is a merciless judge of their decisions. The high price that an investor places in a US 10yr bond that pays nothing but a measly 3 and 3 quarters interest rate to cover inflation, FX and credit risk is an affirmation that US economic policies are in better hands. This is sort of a financial democracy where investors are voting for with their hard earned capital. No one is saying that US Fed will not make mistakes in the future. But they have shown themselves to be remarkably fast learners. History will surely judge them later; but Central Bankers are among one of the fewest professions in the world where millions judge their actions day in and day out. And the verdict so far is that Fed is doing a darn fine job guiding the economy out of one of the biggest recessions we will likely ever see in our lifetimes.
@AZW: Actually Michel Chussodovsky has been right again and again..look at other people on his team, Rick Rozoff, Paul Craig Roberts (former Reagan official), Mahdi Darius Drezmouya, and other Russian military analysts have correctly predicted Western military trends. Some of them 15-20 years in advance, they have also correctly preditced all the movements that the military was making in order to achieve their dominance in Eurasia. So I think its you who cant understand simple facts not me.
@rexminor: Your theories and outlook is awesome, dont let people like AZW let you down , just because a few people call us wierd doesnt mean we are. AZW belongs to a minority, the majority of professionals agree with our analysis.
Mustafa pai … Professionals like Zaid Hamid?
@AZW
You do not give up, do you? Why should you expect a rise in inflation with the credit squeeze?
Have you still not understood that all, and I repeat all major banks in the US and Europe have gone bankrupt on account of their investments primarily in the US. Those which are still operating were supported by the respective Govts. guarantees and cash injection. They have not yet got rid of their toxic assets. The masses of depositors have not rushed to the Banks(except some in England) to withdraw their money.
Similarly, if all the creditors were to ask the US to return their investments, the dooms day for the US is at hand. Those investment Banks who have started declaring profits and even granting bonuses to their CEO’s are still carrying toxic papers. After Iceland more European Countries with the name of ‘Pigs’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are declaring their difficulties for having borrowed from companies such as Gsacs.
By the way I was surprised to learn from you about the so called experts. Normally I would ask for a fee if I was to advise some one on financial matters. I am a bit surprised that you are still referring to so called experts in the US. My credo has always been that after the departure of the crooks we always witness the imposters arriving on the scene and making the best of the miserable situation;
. Mr Hussain after George W.
. Mr Zardari after Parvez….
. Several books from the experts after they sank their master’s ships.
Finally be nice and try to understand what has so far been said on this forum and examining the current events. I shall also recommend the appropriarte reading material on the value of the real economy verses the stock exchange value. This could provide some outlook with a new dimension.
Mr Gorki has very much upset me by showing a narrow way of thinking about the military assault on the minority in India. In the financial matters short thinking is a suicide. I am an outsider, but please be nice to Mustafa Shaban, he is the original maverick one seldom comes across.
Regards,
@Rex Minor
When you confine yourself to your own thoughts and ruminations, you will never fail to receive a courteous hearing. Your Castilian punctilio ensures that.
It is a bit too much when you take a scatty, half-witted kid and build him up instead of spanking him and telling him to return to his books. I sincerely wish you wouldn’t do that. You must think about the kid’s future, and about making permanent his muddled and unclear thought processes.
This is not right of you.
@YLH: Well I am not referring to Zaid Hamid, I am talking about authors, Political and Economic Sceince specialists and other intellectuals.
@vajra: Kid is not a word that suits me so please dont call me that. On the other hand I am fine with my thought process and point of view and in this liberal forum anyone can support it or disagree with it I dont mind and it dusnt matter. I need not be disciplined by anyone. My future is in good hands so please dont worry.
Mustafa,
Listen to Vajra…I was also 19 when I first started mouthing off on the internet. Granted that you are far more mature than I was but you scare us when you champion people like Zaid Hamid.
To Vajra you are a kid. Even I am a kid. You don’t need to agree with him but learn to see who is your well wisher and who is just egging you on.
@Mustafa Shaban
I did not mean to offend you by calling you kid. My reason is that I have a child of my own who is older than you. I agree that that is not a sufficiently good reason to use a word that seems to belittle you. Consider it taken back.
Be sure that only goodwill was behind my earlier message. You are bright and intelligent, and enormously energetic; if only we could wean you away from false prophets!
Rex Minor:
Similarly, if all the creditors were to ask the US to return their investments, the dooms day for the US is at hand
There is a simple way for the investors to return their US investments without indulging in any theatrics. They enter into a transaction called “Sale”. Don’t like US debt paper, just sell it. No one has ever compelled me to buy any investment I did not like. And if I don’t like it, I either do not buy it or using one of the liquid markets in the world, I sell it. If I don’t like US dollar, I sell it in the FX market and buy Euros, Sterling, Rupee or Brazilian Real, anything that I like. See, anyone in the world can do it any day at any time. And my point is that when every investor treats US obligation as the safest asset in the world, they are all expressing a point of view going dead against anything you have ever uttered about the US economy on this thread and before. I have outlined many reasons why investors treat the US economy with so much respect. Your reply: simply empty statements, side tangents, non statements.
Your reply is what Gorki aptly equated with Amitabh’s in Amar Akbar Anthony: “You see the coefficient of the linear is just a position by the hemoglobin of the atmospheric pressure in the country”. I just like to state that we are not the proverbial rapt audience here.
@vajra: Appreciate the goodwill. I am not angry or anything. Dont worry about it.
Dear rex minor:
I had written this response earlier but did not post it since I felt it was overly Indian and Sikh specific and did not belong on the PTH but since you brought up my comments again, I am posting it anyway to set right some misconceptions in your mind regarding the unrest in the Indian Punjab in the 1990’s. Regardless of what you have learnt from selective reading, the Indian army attack on the Golden temple, (operation Blue Star) was not an instance of army brutality on the Sikhs. It was more like an operation on the Lal Masjid in Pakistan; an army action to flush out heavily armed militants who had forcibly taken over the holy site and converted it into a veritable fortress.
Many acts of violence were planned and carried out from within it in those years. As I mentioned before, the victims of this terrorist violence were more often than not the Sikhs themselves. Days before the attack, a Sikh DIG was gunned down by the militants when he went to pray (some say to gather information).
Neither was this an isolated example. Every day ordinary Sikhs who dared to even mildly question the fundamentalists, were gunned down.
Fear and intimidation were used to silence even the lawfully elected representatives of the Sikh political parties by the few thousand gunmen,’ the boys’; as they were called. (Even the Sikh political parties did not represent all the Sikhs anyway and usually got about 40%-60% of the Sikh vote.) In such an absence of law and order, terrorists extorted the small time traders to the tune of millions per month. It was in such a setting that an attack was ordered by the GOI after repeated warning to the terrorists.
Contrary to belief in other countries, the army did very little of the fighting; once the Golden temple was freed, the army was withdrawn within weeks and the rest of the battle was carried out by the Punjab Police; a Sikh force. It did use brutal methods, often torturing and shooting terrorists in cold blood in fake encounters. The terrorists were no less brutal and retaliated against the families of the police officers. Thus by the early nineties, most of this violence was Sikh on Sikh.
The reason why the tide finally turned against terrorism were many; the most important reason for this was that the Sikh people had been heavily vested in the Indian State and thus this was more of a ‘Sikh Civil war’ (as characterized by DGP Gill) than a revolt against a ‘Hindu rule.’ Thus on one hand many Sikhs did not want to risk their status by joining in a rebellion and on the other, did not genuinely feel discriminated against; not till the Delhi riots of 1984. Even after the riots, many Sikhs in Punjab still preferred the rickety Indian democracy to the arbitrary use of power and the lawlessness of the militants.
The other reason was that after a energetic but ruthless officer, KPS Gill took over as the head of the police and Beant Singh a committed INC man became the Chief Minister of Punjab they sent a clear signal; either you are with us or against us; thousands of youth were hired as special police officers and thus co-opted the terrorists recruitment. Surrendered militants were turned around but the recalcitrant ones killed, (especially those who had the blood of other police officers on their hands) often in cold blood. This part remains a dark blot on the name of India, along with the Delhi riots till this day, though a few exceptionally ruthless officers were punished later on.
As a result of all of these factors the Indian army was not politicized and still retains a high degree of respect and affection in the Sikh mind; thought the police force, as corrupt as always, is more feared than respected.
The reason why I write this on the PTH besides the obvious one of setting the record straight is that although conditions are vastly different in West Punjab yet there are similarities; the Taliban is inspired by religious feelings yet offer nothing but anarchy; in such a situation, the population will instinctively back the state institutions; no matter how rusty but for this to happen the State has to believe in itself; politicians will have to take a stand and the security forces will have to send a clear signal; a line is now drawn in the sand and will not be allowed to be violated.
Regards.
Dear Mr Gorki,
I am no one to judge in any way other people’s actions. In my view the military solution for the Golden temple revolt and that in the Lal Masjid, were tragic eposodes and not something to be proud of.
Your earlier note on this episode gave the impression that the death of a sikh citizen by the sikh military is justified and should be acceptable. I thought these comments were not very human. With regard to the actions of the muslim army in the Lal Masjid and the follow up attacks by the Taliban Pashtoons, I would quote the following from the Quraan;
No believer shall kill another believer unless it is an accident. Anyone who kills a believer on purpose, his retribution is Hell………..(4-94,95)
Perhaps I have over reacted. Sorry,
Regards,
@AZW
Sorry, I did not think of you simple ‘sale’ solution. I guess I got confused with too many statistics. You are right if the investors have lost their capital it was their mistake in the first place by choosing the wrong stocks.
Have a nice day.
@Vajra,
Have you ever thought that every new generation of people are more intelligent and more resourceful than the previous ones. I have realised this with my children and many other youth.
Those who have the potential do not need counciling but encouragement and motivation. They are the tomorrow leaders. Have trust in my judgement.
@Rex Minor
Your remarks about the precocity of each succeeding generation are quite reasonable; it does seem that children are getting smarter and smarter. As a generalisation of a sort, this is quite harmless. In the case of the individual in question, however, it is difficult to agree.
He has come to these discussions with a very weak academic and general foundation. His reading seems to be of sensationalist authors, who, regardless of their antecedents, specialise in sinister conspiracy theories which put Muslims as the victims and Jews, international capitalists, and an eclectic collection of villains who spin one diabolical plot after another. I nearly forgot the ubiquitous Indian, scurrying between the conspirators, replenishing their supplies of gunpowder and their strong liquor, dragging in bound and helpless victims for the plotters to practice their vilest surgical instruments on, stoking up fires and blunting sharp instruments in the torture chambers, going out and kidnapping little children and helpless women for the practices of the plotters’ worst excesses………I trust you get the picture.
This, it seems, is the sound part of the education; the rest consists of less substantial stuff, of the horrors of the TV expert. He has sat and listened to the outpourings of the most bizarre kind from these experts, some of whose work was exhibited for public exhibition in these columns, to the general dismay of the public, one might add, but consisting of materiel which adolescents and immature young people of this background have been lapping up.
How can you take comfort in the support of such a youngster? And worse, how can you encourage him? It is more than likely to have an effect on him permanently, unless he is taken off this and re-oriented quickly. It is people like you who should be doing the remonstration and the re-orientation instead of pandering to him so that you have some temporary support. If you do not do this, you are betraying the confidence that he has evidently placed in you. If you have it in you to react in an ethical manner, which should be beyond question or doubt, your duty lies clear before you, and how you react will determine your standing for the future.
@Vagra
I do not know about the background of people on this forum, you probably do. You are in error if you have the illusion that I need some one’s support and that I am pandering. You are definitely capable of using civil but provocative vocabulary and this is not to your advantage.
Like many I open the internet window to have a view of the distant world and comment if this adds something. We are all humans and have been educated to converse with each other in a civilised manner. I have noticed that the words which we regard very rude in Europe are commonly used by most of the Pakistanis and Indians alike with ease. Is this the side effect of the americinisation process? This in my view should be admonished by seniors like yourself.
In my judgement he has something that others do not have. There are no short cuts in life and the experience cannot be taught. I admire those who have the desire to learn. They are the future leaders and they need simply to listen to their own conscious. I would encourage and assist if possible any who has the urge to learn, not copy cat controversial personalities.
Well said Vajra “I nearly forgot the ubiquitous Indian, scurrying between the conspirators, replenishing their supplies of gunpowder and their strong liquor…”
They re now facing an irrevocable threat as a result of this clever tactic.
History repeats itself, never exactly though.
and by the way I hope you know the interpretation of Ganpat this side of the border.
@Red Minor
Since you have elected to offer provocation and to be provoked where it is not called for, let us get some things clear.
I do not know about the background of people on this forum, you probably do.
Only one person is in question here, and that person has described himself, his present location, his academic status and so on in his own posts. How is it that you are unaware of this information? And being unaware of it, how is it that you elect to accuse others of possessing some mysterious additional information? It is all open and available to all.
You are in error if you have the illusion that I need some one’s support and that I am pandering.
This is the impression created by your own choice of words and your own response to a totally vapid post. Why create an illusion that you need support, and then blame those who perceive it as your needing support? Surely the fault lies in your own choice of words and expressions, and your own turns of phrase.
You are definitely capable of using civil but provocative vocabulary and this is not to your advantage.
Do you really need me to point out that you have used vocabulary in the past that has been inflammatory, to say the least, about various nations, their customs, their religion, their cultural habits including their apparel, their military forces and the lack of rootedness in the nations in question, and so on and so forth? Would you like me to draw up a table of examples, or will you at least gracefully acknowledge that you have egregiously insulted a wide variety of opinion yourself, and now are complaining at being called to account? In ever-so-polite language, and at the end, in inexorably insulting terms beyond the fluffy, nursery manners used to disarm people and conceal your intentions?
Like many I open the internet window to have a view of the distant world and comment if this adds something. We are all humans and have been educated to converse with each other in a civilised manner.
Please confirm that you agree that we too open the internet window to have a view of the distant world and comment if this adds something.
Please confirm that you agree that we are humans.
Please confirm that you believe that we too have been educated to converse with each other in a civilised manner.
If we are in agreement up to this point, please confirm that your remarks were superfluous and added nothing to the discussion.
I have noticed that the words which we regard very rude in Europe are commonly used by most of the Pakistanis and Indians alike with ease. Is this the side effect of the americinisation process? This in my view should be admonished by seniors like yourself.
There exists, on the other hand, the contrary view, that many of us have been subjected to the most bizarre flights of fancy – your thesis that the Pashtoon will take over South Asia and rule as they did before is an example – and that these may be due to your having lost your native courtesy under the corrosive influence of living in Europe in conditions not necessarily conducive to retention of a person’s self-respect and human values.
You might describe this as the side-effect of an unsuccessful Europeanisation process.
I must tell you that there have been private exchanges where individuals have expressed great resentment at your language and your aggressive attitudes, and I have been asked point blank where I stand with regard to these matters. Hitherto my stand has been pacific and calming; as a senior, I have discouraged adverse comment about you and your views far beyond the requirement to do so, not least by example.
In my judgement he has something that others do not have.
I agree; since you have not named what it is, may I conclude from the trend of our preceding remarks on either side that your judgement and mine agree on degree but differ on polarity.
There are no short cuts in life and the experience cannot be taught. I admire those who have the desire to learn. They are the future leaders and they need simply to listen to their own conscious. I would encourage and assist if possible any who has the urge to learn, not copy cat controversial personalities.
I hope that you will agree, on reflection, that this is a difficult passage to parse.
1. Experience cannot be taught.
2. The desire to learn is admirable; from the axiom above, apparently the desire to learn is to be directed at something other than experience.
3. These admirables, these future leaders, need simply to listen to their own conscience; presumably this listening is an adjunct to learning, or constitutes the entire process of learning.
In which case we have dispensed with experience, we have retained a desire to learn, and we have coupled it to the conscience of the individual.
4. You will encourage and assist any who have the desire to learn, and not, to coin a phrase coined freshly by you, copy cat controversial personalities.
Seeing that many wiser than I have been counselling this young man to avoid copy-catting controversial personalities, this is a bit baffling.
It seems that you are saying that if he stops doing what he does now, to a general uneasiness and a mounting desire to rescue him from the consequences of his own folly, in other words, if he stops doing what we too would like him to stop doing, you will help him.
As it happens, whether or not he stops doing what we would like him to stop doing, we will help him.
However, perhaps the celestial design will be revealed shortly. Let us move on.
Your help apparently will amount to encouraging and assisting him.
We note that experience cannot be taught, so your encouragement and assistance does not reside in teaching him from your experience.
The desire to learn (the object being unspecified, this could mean anything from basket-weaving to fashion-design) is available to be nurtured through encouragement and assistance. There we go then. If we persist, and use enough monkeys and enough typewriters, we will produce all of Shakespeare’s works.
We are left with the requirement to listen to one’s own conscience. Unless you consider yourself a personification of that sublime attribute, sadly absent in contributors to this blog, it is a little puzzling to understand what form your encouragement and assistance will take.
To be perfectly honest, I am saddened.
It would have been dignified and proper to acknowledge that you had erred, and that you would in future take corrective action. This would have delighted many.
If you find it impossible to acknowledge personal error, you could with dignity have preserved a stoic silence, and we should have understood why you were doing so.
If you are convinced about your infallibility and your constitution does not permit you to maintain a stoic silence, for that matter, even an Epicurean silence, we might have pardoned all past matters for a well-rendered joke, preferably one about cowardly, wife-dominated tribesmen of anonymous provenance who straddle the Durand Line. That would have been interpreted as an apology of unusual and most becoming grace.
One shall await the next blast of the mountain blizzard with chilled expectations
@vajra
Your comments have left me cold. I am not with you on any point. Most of it is spanish for me . I still do not know the age of M Shaban nor do I know of your concerns about this guy that you called ‘Kid’-
Your conclusions about my person from my comments are faulty almost ninty nine and a half percent. This should at least convince you that your judgement about other people is miserable to say the least. Mr vagra , I am not living in your country, freedom of expression in Europe is guaranteed in the constitution. What I have said on this forum is my personal opinion and I am surprised that you found it inflammatory and anti-religion. You must be mixing up my post with that of G vishwas or G ram? I have always been respectful towards peoples religion, no exceptions. If this is the perception I have conveyed then I am sorry. it was not intentional. With regard to the encouragement and assistance for M Shaban, now seriously do not start with your wild imaginations, I do not know the guy or his requirements. But I would in all honesty would be glad to help him if I can.
Mr Vajra, I do not live in your world and this handicaps me. I reckon you guys are sometimes unfriendly, rude and even provocative and you said that I have been saying inflammatory things upstting people. I tell you what, please do not expect the mountain blizzard as the winter is leaving us now, instead I am going to turn my back like Merlin(something like stow silence) and try to forget the episode like a bad dream.
@Red Minor
The feelings are mutual. Your ingenuousness is inapt. Any conclusions made about your person merely reflect your sneer about the words that Indians and Pakistanis use possibly being a side-effect of the Americanisation process. These jibes, once made, tend to boomerang. The operative Americanism is: if you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
It is not clear why your personal opinion, freely expressed, should not be found inflammatory or anti-religion. Are we to assume that these come with antidotes built in? Or are your personal opinions delivered ex cathedra, and is infallibility therefore a matter of dogma?
My personal opinion, delivered consistent with the provisions of my country’s constitution, a constitution known throughout the world, with its faults and warts and shortcomings prominently discussed along with its felicities, its defences and its protections, is that rabble-rousing cannot be conducted within a cloak of child-like innocence without suffering some damage to your credibility.
Arguing that you do not know our society, whatever that peculiar statement meant, is special pleading; you seem to know whichever society you select to discuss in a selective manner, and seem to license yourself to speak about two armies which are not national armies, without any hint of what a national army is, according to you; you deliver Delphic judgements about the rights and wrongs of police operations conducted against brigands and terrorists who have violated every rule of man or God; you have much to say about what the Pushtoon really stand for, what their inner feelings are, what their immediate plans are, and so on, as if you were standing by their shoulders as they deliberate.
At times like that, you seem to have a prerogative to speak about our societies with remarkable and comprehensive authority. At times when you are criticised for baseless remarks and irresponsible interpretation, you retire to your cave in Wales wrapped in an impenetrable silence.
Good for you. You have made your point to the entire satisfaction of your audience of two, yourself and your children’s brigade. Now that the world is won, please rest on your laurels, give us a brief pause to catch our breaths, and take on the rest of the universe in a while. Could my personal liberty to speak my mind extend so far as to suggest to you a resumption of your campaign for the hearts and minds of the universe ten years from now?