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Egypt Crisis: Can Such a Thing Happen in Pakistan and Should it Happen?

January 31st, 2011 | 15 Comments

By Raza Habib Raja

The television is a powerful media; in fact live transmission makes an impact which transcends almost everything else in its potency. If televised, the impact of burgeoning public revolution on the viewers is high even when they are in a far off country, and can also create desire or at least expectation of duplication of the similar kind of events in their own homeland. This longing is intensified if you see an autocrat being humbled by the courage of people. The first thing which comes to mind is: If such a thing can happen there, it can also occur here.

Right now the continuing public protest in Egypt is being televised and evoking emotions across the globe. The power of people defying tanks is surely making several “revolutionaries” teary eyed in Pakistan. The revolutionary fervor is being further fanned by several anchors as well as journalists who are trying to draw analogies between the root causes of public unrest in Egypt and ground realities in Pakistan. Apparently the similarities exist. Both countries have high income disparities coupled with high rate of inflation as well unemployment. Apparently the situation is also “ripe” in Pakistan, at least in the eyes of all teary eyed romantic revolutionaries.

Yes I support Egyptians and in my eyes there is nothing more fantastic than people rising up and challenging autocracy. Yes there is nothing more emotionally inspiring than the sight of people confronting tanks and soldiers actually joining them for the protests. But I have serious doubts whether such thing is possible in Pakistan or even if happens, can be a better thing for Pakistan. For that matter even in Egypt, there are growing concerns from some elements (whether justified or not is a separate debate) that eventually the Islamists may emerge as victorious.

What happened in Tunisia and is happening in Egypt is a revolt against autocracy which over the years has become intertwined with the destiny of these countries. When you completely stifle pluralism, curb opposition and not allow change through legitimate means then you end up being blamed for literally everything when things start going wrong in the society. People can only blame in one direction and justifiably. The image and the persona of an autocrat becomes the natural target when things go beyond the tipping point.

An authority which is just based on establishment institutions without any concomitant engagement with the public will crumble quickly under such circumstances. The state during the rule of the autocrat gradually becomes an insensitive organ and cannot change or sense the changing moods. Autocrats can seldom even understand the buildup of despair and when it ultimately expresses itself in widespread anger they keep themselves in denial mode until the anger manifests in violent and sustained protests forcing them out of power.

In such countries the change can only come through a revolution and at times a violent revolution. Most of the times, due to the evolution of state and society in a particular pattern which is not consistent with the people’s aspirations, the status quo cannot be shaken without completely overthrowing the regime and its foundations. Since regime cannot be changed through any electoral process therefore prolonged protests and bloodshed is the only way out. This is what gives rise to such revolutions. This is what happened in communist regimes in the late 1980s and is unfolding in front of our eyes in Egypt. And yes to some extent this sort of movement has already happened in Pakistan in late 1960s which forced Ayub Khan out of power.

The current scenario in Pakistan though extremely dismal is not the sort of scenario where such revolutions can take place. PPP and PML (N) are the largest and most popular parties and right now in power in Centre and Punjab respectively. Do you really think there will be a revolution against them? Yes in the minds of some media anchors who are divorced from the ground realities and who have some sort of romantic fascination with the word revolution. But in reality this is not going to happen because there is no “blame” worthy target here against which people of ALL walks of life can gather and bring a revolution.

This is not to suggest that people are happy here. Pakistanis right now are feeling miserable. But the dynamics which bring a revolution of Egyptian nature are not there. Yes people will be protesting and pressurizing the government along with the media but a revolutionary overthrow in even a dysfunctional type of democracy is generally not likely.

If anything such protests EVEN if they somehow or the other materialize would only bring in army once again. And that is something which we have experienced before also and let me assure you that it was not revolutionary.

I keep on hearing about so called revolution of the left where peasants will rise and challenge the status quo. Frankly this scenario, though romantically appealing, IS NOT LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE. I am just being realistic here. And unfortunately the only people who can actually overthrow regime are not leftists (who in reality perhaps do not even exist in Pakistan) but hardcore Islamic militants.

I agree with Pervaiz Hoodbhoy when he wrote the following lines in his excellent article titled as” Can the Left become relevant to Islamic Pakistan”:

“Let me state the bald truth: Pakistan needs reform not revolution. The Left needs to know that there is not a chance in a million of capturing state power in the foreseeable future. In fact, the only ones who can even conceivably bring about a revolution are the Islamists. And their revolution is to be dreaded because they will wipe out every little gain made in sixty years. Therefore the Left must pick its fights, and not try to fight everyone at the same time.”

Whatever their weaknesses, democratic governments continue to negotiate and renegotiate with the opposition and also try to focus on people. Yes in our cynicism we have often overlooked it but democracy if given a chance to evolve will bring reforms. It will change the status quo as the pressure from the electorate and from the opposition grows. Yes it will be at times frustrating and at times not successful but that is how a complex multi ethnic polity changes.

Moreover despite their conservatism, the fact is that Media and Judiciary are relatively free. Unfortunately they are conservative but even then their relative freedom can play a constructive role. Any democratic regime needs multifaceted accountability which comes from electorate, media, judiciary and civil society. These institutions are developing in Pakistan. Although a few ‘liberals’ frown at Judiciary and media, I think that despite conservatism these institution can improve the governance provided they do not go overboard.

Despite extremism and severe gloom, there have been achievements through consensus like 18th amendment and an improved NFC award. Even in governance, the federal government is showing signs to improve and yes even listening to Supreme Court.

For all those who want a revolution or think that violent chaos will some or the other sow the seeds of a stable and egalitarian future, I would like to remind them again that such violent change in Pakistan will not be brought by some kind of Maoist rebels but by the hardcore Islamic militants. And if that happens, it will be catastrophic. Let’s support democracy and reform rather than a misplaced and frankly unlikely revolution.

Written by razaraja

Filed under: Uncategorized · Tags: Egypt Crisis, Pakistan, people, revolution

15 Responses to "Egypt Crisis: Can Such a Thing Happen in Pakistan and Should it Happen?"

Rashid Aurakzai says:

January 31, 2011 at 5:24 pm

They are nation. We are herd.

They are all literate and at least in their mother tongue and we………?

Their regime is tyrannical to the limit that no Egyptian would even talk about it for fear of being caught. The hard core Islamists would shave beards when going back home. Pakistan has never been that much hard.

Largest portion of GDP contributed by Egyptians expatriates in Gulf. You can imagine joblessness back home. They make largest community in KSA.

Urban to rural population ratio is higher than Pakistan Pakistan.

Egypt is not divided society as we are. Religion is not taken seriously as in Pakistan. Harmonious polity of Christians, Jews, Muslims, Liberals, Conservatives and Islamists. One ethnicity compare to severals in Pakistan.

In short it more a class struggle. Small minority of Elites against vast majority. Things may not change for better as the de-facto force, the Egyptian Army maintains silence and waits for tear gas to settle down. It is strongly pro American as major chunk of its Aid goes to them. This would at least give Egyptians and Arabs, a confidence in peaceful political struggle on one hand and the ruling elites to concede concessions to their subjects on the other.

Anger makes men wise but it keeps them poor. We shall then smell starched Khakis again.
amar says:

January 31, 2011 at 6:24 pm

Pakistanis always look to the west and become their slaves. Arab west, US west, emigrants’ west, islamic west, weapon dealers’ west, financial west etc.

if they look east then they have real friends in India, critical friends but genuine ones. Not flatterers. Not quislings of islam or USA. Even China has only its imperialist and racist interests in Pakistan.
Ally says:

January 31, 2011 at 9:08 pm

Our society is a south asian society and not a north african or middle eastern one… the dynamics are different… we need to evolve our own govt. and systems not look towards anyone else.
krash says:

January 31, 2011 at 9:19 pm

Don’t you think something similar happened in Pakistan in 2007 when people came out in streets? The result was that our dictator left and independent judiciary was restored – though later. Now, democracy is working out its problems.
Raza Raja says:

January 31, 2011 at 9:43 pm

@krash yes it happened during musharraf and also against Ayub…but those were autocrats..this si the arguement of this article also that Egyptian style protests are likely if Pakistan was being ruled by an autocrat
PMA says:

February 1, 2011 at 2:41 am

Raja Sahab: Egypt has been under the dictatorship since first military overthrow of the monarchy – help me out. First Nasser then Sadat and then Mubarak. Nasser was backed by the Soviets, Sadat took the payment and switched sides, and Mubarak been kept in power by you know who. For half a century the country has been continuously under the same military regime supported by one super power or the other. Pakistan on the other hand, not counting Yahya, has been under three different military dictators in three different time intervals. Ayub was overthrown, Zia was snuffed in midair and Musharraf was egged out by our paymaster. Now what we have is a three ring circus populated by clowns. Call it democracy if you wish. I prefer to call it ‘political oligarchy’ fed on foreign biscuit crumbs. What is missing in this picture? The public.
Tauheed Ahmed says:

February 1, 2011 at 3:02 am

Egyptians tolerated a dictator for 23 years. Pakistanis have never allowed a dictator to last more than 7-8 years.
Now it is time to ensure that the democratic government gets a chance to endures and develops deep roots in Pakistan, as has been the case in India as well as older democracies like the UK and the US. When anyone (whether it is MQM or the religious parties or taliban supporter Imran Khan) talk about “revolution”, we should remember that any “revolution” against an elected government will set the clock back to dictatorship in one form or another (religious, civilian).
Bade Miyan says:

February 1, 2011 at 3:47 am

Amar,
I love the way you use the word quisling. Seems like the word was invented for your highness. You should write a thesis on various shades of quisling. Of course, don’t forget to attach arab, islam, west, or any combination of those words.
Raj (The Other One) says:

February 1, 2011 at 4:18 am

It is just optimistic to believe, that something like in Egypt is not possible in Pakistan.

The masses of Pakistan, the rural masses, the workers of the feudals have always been kept dispossessed for so long.

Outfits like Punjabi Taliban are outlets for their anger. The masses are seeing that they need not look up to the lords of yesteryears in awe and submisusion. Islam is giving them freedom, freedom from servitude. The masses will simply embrace piety and then come and overthrow the old order, the order of the Army man, the order of the feudal, and even the order of the sarkari Mullah, for Islam would become the route to revolution.

For a long time, Islam was used to by the elites to talk the masses into submission, submission to the so-called whiskey-swirling Ghazis, submission to the womanizing feudals, submission to the hierarchy. But somewhere along the way, the aam abdul found out that their elite were only using Islam to their own ends, but they never meant what they said – all were munafiqeen. By becoming more pious, more conservative, the aam abdul could challenge the elite for a stake in a land, in which the masses were given no voice.

Salman Taseer was only one casualty of this revolution. The Pakistani Elite – the Jinnah lovers should know, that their time is up. Inquilaab is coming. We know how Najibullah went.

This is no liberalism vs. conservative struggle. The Pakistan elite left only the door of Islam open to the masses for their revolution. So those knocking on the doors are simply Maoists with a different name – Islamic Puritans. This is a class war!

If the Pakistani Elite had allowed genuine plurality in society, then the downtrodden may have taken a different path, but now they have to take the Islam path only to express their anger and grievances. This path also means that the end for the Pakistani Elite would be especially bloody!

The Pakistani Liberals should see the issue thus: the Pakistani Elite, and that includes them, have forfeited the right to this lifestyle, so their demise is only natural. It is the right thing that it is happening! They themselves are responsible for this.

In India, the downtrodden were empowered politically. The Brahmin-Bania combine made way, in fact made way willingly for the rise of the Yadavs and Dalits. Pakistan has done no such thing. So the revolution would inadvertently come.
Delirium says:

February 1, 2011 at 12:10 pm

Not to be forgotten, there is another critical element i.e recent floods that have caused huge devastation and misery along the length and width of the country. Since little is being done to address the issue as was in the case of volcanoes in Kashmir & Baluchistan, we are sitting atop a sleeping volcano.

That is how Red Cross describes the situation
http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=10407
Luq says:

February 1, 2011 at 4:35 pm

What will be the agenda if you decide to pour out, into the streets in the form of a large mob? What will you be cribbing against? What if this large mob overwhelms the elected govt and brings the bearded /army to power. Will it not be making matters worse?
Luq
Raza Raja says:

February 1, 2011 at 5:38 pm

@ Luq

You are right. That was the main argument of my article also
Beverlee says:

February 1, 2011 at 10:59 pm

Great article, wonderful website design and style, carry on the good work
Chalta says:

February 2, 2011 at 8:17 pm

Arabs are currently acting like Gandhi with civil disobedience and non violent protests. Lets hope they don’t turn into Jinnah style direct action day creeps. As far as pakistan is concerned, it will take a maha gandhi to remove the violent jinnah legacy
Raza Raja says:

February 3, 2011 at 1:31 pm

@ chalta

This a totally nonsensical comment with absolutely no bearing to the article in question. I think you must be another one from chowk!