Pak Tea House » Pakistan » Pakistan: On the edge of chaos?
Pakistan: On the edge of chaos?
By Dr. Niaz Murtaza
Salman Taseer’s murder is shocking and condemnable, as is the subsequent celebratory reaction among certain circles. However, is Pakistan really suffering from the terminally incurable cancer of extremism, as many people, even well-wishers, are consequently concluding globally? Are extremists poised to take over? We must trace the trajectory of extremism in Pakistan to answer this question.
The birth of extremism in Pakistan obviously occurred under Zia. However, orphaned early by the death of its ideological father, violent extremism reduced significantly by mid-1990s, though the propagation of extremist ideology continued unchecked in Madrassahs and elsewhere. Zia’s orphans were subsequently adopted and nurtured by his military successor, Musharraf, though his guardianship extended solely for pragmatic reasons, unlike Zia’s pragmatic-cum-ideological linkages. In order to defeat the PPP and PML-N in the 2002 elections, Musharraf orchestrated victory for the PML-Q and MMA. The rigging in favor of MMA re-ignited nationalist rebellion in Balochistan and religious extremism in KPK.
With the active support of MMA’s KPK government and the benefit of willful neglect by Musharraf, extremists had acquired three fearsome capacities by 2007, in addition to their continuing capacity to indoctrinate people. Most fearsome was their capacity to capture territory. As Musharraf deferred serious military action to coddle religious allies, FATA fell early, followed by Swat. Militant-held areas soon reached within 60 kms of Islamabad, sending shockwaves globally. Next in seriousness was their capacity to pass extremist legislation based on rigged parliamentary numeracy. Thus, the Hasba bill’s implementation was only thwarted by Supreme Court action. The third capacity related to undertaking random violent attacks throughout Pakistan. While this third capacity inflicted serious damage, it still gave extremists much less strategic ability to mold the country in their image than the other capacities.
What is the trajectory of these capacities since Musharraf’s departure? Given that the present government and army leadership are less beholden to religious parties, military operations have picked up and most lost territory has been recaptured, though strong pockets still exist. Following free elections, religious parties have lost their ability to pass extremist legislation. In fact, with the JUI’s exit, the government now includes only secular parties unlikely to pass such legislation, though admittedly they are too afraid to fight for secularism. Neither capacity is likely to re-emerge soon.
Progress on eliminating the militants’ capacity to undertake random violent attacks has been slower. Suicide attack casualties have decreased and their radius is shrinking closer to FATA. Attacks on music shops, co-educational schools etc. have reduced. However, the disruptive power of extremists remains strong enough to keep the country unstable. Salman Taseer’s murder represents a flare-up on this capacity. However, the most ferocious displays of this capacity occur in defense of past territorial and legislative gains (e.g., when the blasphemy law and remaining FATA strongholds are attacked) rather than for new gains. The ability to indoctrinate people also remains strong. Beyond enhancing their disruptive capacities, this may also help extremists win elections or take over key institutions stealthily, especially the military. Neither scenario is impossible but nor easy given the polycentric nature of Pakistan. Winning elections especially would require enormous social mobilization by extremists to nullify existing patronage politics. Even if either happens, it will be gradually over 5-10 years.
Given this status of different capacities, it is clear that Pakistan today is not a country slipping into an extremist abyss rapidly but one slowly clawing out from it, with extremist violent capacities largely focused on defending past victories. Nevertheless, even these remaining capacities represent Pakistan’s biggest challenge since 1971. Clearly, hate factories, extremist legislation, illegal weapons and militant strongholds must be eliminated, among other things, to achieve economic and political stability and the moderation dictated by true Islamic teachings and traditional Pakistani culture.
Unfortunately, neither politicians nor generals seem willing or capable of doing so until Afghanistan stabilizes given their fears of the disruptive capacities of extremists. Thus, the army is in a stalemate in FATA. However, the same is true in Afghanistan for the more mighty and motivated Americans. This is happening primarily because Pakistan and America are not on the same page. The USA is pursuing a military solution but Pakistan a compromise whereby pro-Pakistan militants can dominate Afghanistan. Until both parties operate from the same page, the stalemates will persist.
Pakistan could fully pursue the military solution demanded by the US under strong American pressure. However, the success of this strategy is uncertain given the failed history of external military forays in the region. It will also likely cause serious strife within Pakistan as extremists unleash their disruptive capacities to protect remaining gains. Abandoning the war unilaterally, as is sometimes suggested, is inadvisable given that Pakistan must maintain international goodwill and given its past complicity in encouraging extremism on both sides of the border. Thus, the most feasible option is that, forgoing narrow aims, Pakistan must convince America and the Taliban to pursue peace whereby Taliban elements willing to respect human rights join a broadly-based, ethnically decentralized Afghan government that is neutral towards all external stakeholders.
This option will optimize the interests of not only domestic and regional stakeholders but also America. America’s real rival, Al-Qaeda, barely exists in Afghanistan anymore but has spread globally. In fighting heavily in Afghanistan, the US is chasing ghosts, getting distracted from new Al-Qaeda sanctuaries and fanning instability in nuclear-armed Pakistan. By weaning away the Taliban, the USA will increase Pakistan’s capacity and willingness to tackle remaining Al-Qaeda-allied and domestic extremists through carrot and stick and enhance Pakistan’s stability. Will the US learn the lessons that the UK and USSR learnt earlier about Afghanistan? It probably will, but closer to its withdrawal timeline of 2014. So, barring military miracles, Pakistan will remain unstable until then (though without collapsing). However, this will reflect the follies not just of its generals and politicians but also America, as throughout Pakistan’s history.
Dr. Niaz Murtaza is a Research Associate on political economy issues at the University of California, Berkeley, murtazaniaz@yahoo.com. This article recently appeared in Dawn.
Filed under: Pakistan · Tags: chaos, extremists, Niaz Murtaza, Pakistan
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[...] Pakistan: On the edge of chaos? [...]
Pakistan is a functioning society. It is not defunct. That is the reason why the extremists have so much success. This is no paradox – it is because of the backing they receive from religion and politics (i.e. the pakistani army), both of which profit enormously from the societal functions and the threesome profit from each other. What is defunct in Pakistan is the intelligentsia. Earlier this intelligentsia enthusistically helped and today continues to help (albeit now relunctantly) the threesome of religion, politics (army) and extremism.
What non-sense this author is talking! ……..Given this status of different capacities, it is clear that Pakistan today is not a country slipping into an extremist abyss rapidly but one slowly clawing out from it, ………….
State institutions are using and promoting extremism as state policy. No one can openly condemn the act of Taseer’s murder without fear of getting killed. Even a secular govt with huge public support is compelled to submit before extremist demands! Is this called ‘clawing out’?
On top of that, his arguments are not supported by empirical evidence.
Salmaan Taseer has been dead only 47 days! And you are correct. No one hardly says a word about it anymore. What a shame. It is a national disgrace!
Bad Economy, Lack of Justice and the idealism of Pakistan Ka Matlab La illaha illalah. Zia was mere a booster from a generation misused for that false signal.
The blasphemy laws in Pakistan are no doubt a very sensitive issue. But so was the Hudood Ordinance, which was rectified by Parliament. Pakistan went through a very turbulent period under General Zia-ul-Haq. Laws were incorporated that reeked of a very conservative and distorted form of Islam. As these are ‘man-made laws, not God-made laws’. They can and should be amended. The Political Establishment needs to challenge and enlighten those parties, groups and individuals who believe in suicide bombings, murder and religious intolerance.
The rising bourgeoisie in Pakistan needs to be exposed to heinous crimes that are being committed at the beck and call of the religious right. Such parties are entitled to voice their opinions and sentiment, but they are not allowed to instigate violence. The religious party (JuI) has been active prior to partition (1947). They have never been able to secure the Federal Government. If Pakistan believed in the ideology the religious parties put forward, we would have been a very different country today. It is in fact, the Pakistan Peoples Party, a grassroots, liberal, secular party that is not surprisingly, the largest political party as well.
I have two disagreements with the author:
1. The seeds of fanaticism were sown not in Zia’s era but in Bhutto’s time with the second amendment. Zia’s rule only resulted in culminating a logical progression.
2. I dont know how reasonable it is to assume that Pakistan is clawing out of the extremist abyss. It is right that the fanatics are violently defending their past gains at have’nt made much tangible gains in terms of extremists legislation. But isn’t the mass indoctrination reducing the possibility of tolerance and harmony in society? Isn’t that a gain for the fanatics?
A secular education system that focuses on science and arts is important. We need to imrpove our education system and open more schools in rural areas. We also need to launch a nationwide literacy campaign. When a population can read it makes all the difference. Education should be our priority, but its hardly ever mentioned. Only thru bettering our people will our country grow and prosper.
Ally [...A secular education system that focuses on science and arts is important...]
Yep, that’s where the key is… It’s J for Jihad and K for Kafir education that has taken pakis where they are today…
What pakis need is complete re-write the textbooks with complete abolition of bedouinistic non-sense that paki kids study these days and total revamp of education system…. that’s the only way out of the islamist hellhole pakis have dug for themselves… there is no other way…
wow [... What is defunct in Pakistan is the intelligentsia. Earlier this intelligentsia enthusistically helped and today continues to help (albeit now relunctantly) the threesome of religion, politics (army) and extremism...]
Right on… Paki “intelligentsia” have been every gung-ho about spreading islamism among the unwashed masses, in order to create enough cannon fodder for achieving all kinds of strategic wet-dreams and delusions of grandeur – all the while they leading a “western” life style for themselves…
Salman Taseer was epitome of that defunct and delusional mindset… it was such an irony that the same jihadi chicken that he was so in fond of pushing elsewhere for “strategic goals”, finally came home to bite him – fatatlly as it turned out…
Actually, it’s almost “poetic justice”…
Ally wrote:
Ally janab,
The poison in Pakistan is about hate and mistrust of the other, the foreign! At a young age, children are taught to look down upon Hindus, are taught to hate the Jews, are taught to mistrust America. The children are taught that there are people and countries who are enemies of Pakistan and Islam.
It is this poison, that needs to be eradicated from Pakistan’s system. Teaching Sciences and Arts would only go so far. What one need to teach is general knowledge about
o the Pre-Islamic Civilization of the region,
o the Beliefs of the Hindus
o the Beliefs of the Sikhs
o the Beliefs of the Jews
o the Beliefs of the Christians
o the Beliefs of the Zoroastrians
o the history and political systems of the various countries in the Indian Subcontinent devoid of ideology
o world history
All this is not to make Pakistanis into Hindus, or Jews or Christians, but rather to give them sufficient knowledge of the various religions, so that they do not fall prey to the propaganda of the Islamists and Mullahs who want to teach them that being Hindu is about drinking cow piss and idol worship. They should learn the difference between idol worship and the the use of idols during worship. They should learn why the Hindus consider the cow as holy, etc. etc.
If the children do not get such knowledge beforehand, they would become prone to be brainwashed by the Islamists and the Ghazwa-e-Hind Brigade to mistrust and to hate the Jews, the West and India.
So teaching Science and Arts is good but not quite sufficient!
?Secular education system for pakis?
Seems far-fetched idea..How about slightly toning down the hatred in text books?
The former Indian foreign secretary, J.N. Dixit, recalling his days as ambassador in Islamabad said that once when he called on a Pakistani friend, the latter’s six-year old daughter on discovering that Dixit was a
Hindu skipped around the table chanting ‘Hindu Kutta’, ‘Hindu Kutta.’
Major & Raj(the other one):
I doubt that our Pakistani friends have ever cared for Indian opinions and suggestions. We have to remind ourselves of the wisdom in Matthew 7:6 “Do not give what is holy to dogs, and do not throw pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn and tear you to pieces.”
Raj_m:
My post above is addressed to you as well. Also, I replied to your comment on “Diplomatic Duplicity” in case you missed it. Regards.
I wonder if teachers needed for the kind of suggested education will be found in sufficient numbers in Pakistan.
Raj (doosra)
What you mention is part of a secular system, where each belief is explained but not propagated. In our school this class was called RE or religious education, where we looked at each belief in turn.
To the other Indians
Please look at the articles of Salman Rashid from Tribune. He always writes about the Pakistani ancient past. Very interesting, though not enough, i wish this was taught in schools too.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/120966/mandanis-revered/
he has many articles just flick thru the ones linked on this one.
[...I doubt that our Pakistani friends have ever cared for Indian opinions and suggestions...]
And that is why pakis are so messed up – they have never listened to the wise indians’ pearls of wisdom…
Thanks for all the comments, especially those expressed politely and constructively. just some responses to some comments:
One reader questioned my thesis that Pakistan is showing an improving trend. He did so by pointing out how bad the situation is today. However, a trend cannot be determined by just looking at the situation at one point in time but must at least compare it across two points in time. moreover, the measurement of extremism at different time points must not be in terms of only one factor but many different factors as I do (i.e., capturing territory, passing legislation and acts of violence). Once one does that, as in the article, i think it is valid to assert an improving situation. The reader points out that no empirical evidence has been provided. That is true, but then the three factors that I consider are well known to anyone familiar with the Pak situation. So for example it is a well known fact that the taliban controlled swat and SWA three years ago completely but now have been beaten back largely. The number of suicide attacks has gone down in 2010– again this is well reported in newspapers. anyone needing more info can read Stephen Cohen’s “The future of Pakistan” , Brookings Institute.
Another reader mentioned that the seeds of extremism were sowed in bhutto’s time and not zia’s. it is true that bhutto passed some extremist legislation (i.e. only one of the three factors that i considered). One can even go back to the 1940/50s when the objective resolution was passed. However, there was a huge qualitative escalation in zia’s time with the formation, financing and support of actual terrorist groups who targeted pakistan and wreaked violence in the streets. This did not happen under bhutto and 1950s. The reader also questions whether with the current continuing indoctrination it is reasonable to say that the situation is improving. The indoctrination is a training process .What we need to see is whether actual extremism is increasing or not as a result of the indoctrination. As i argue in terms of the three factors, this increased training is not resulting in the situation becoming more unstable. of course, it may do so in the future, and I do discuss that possibility and argue that the govt should check madrassah etc. However, as i also argue towards the end, the govt is unlikely to do so or unlikely to succeed even if it does so until Afghanistan is boiling. My own assessment is that the sitaution in afghanistan will probably stabilize in next 2 years once America realizes the infeasibility of an armed solution after which a significant improvement will also occur in Pakistan.
Thanks again, everyone!